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As drew near increasingly 2008, regard global economy as the main dynamic China of growth, its economy will move toward He Fang, caused each to cross a country to deliver the attention of travel greatly. Economic growth puts delay blandly each are big international is cast think consistently all right, growth of economy of next year China will put delay, but will still move in perch. United States forest thinks, china will still be to pull those who move global economy growth 2008 the greatest power, the GDP growth that expects China will arrive from the 11.5% fall after a rise 2007 10.9% . GDP growth put delay to reflect the desire that the government drops in temperature to economy, its purpose is to be on guard the bad influence that overheat of inflation, economy may bring. Fill Liang Gong of Chinese chief economist high to express, global economy grew the risk that put delay to rise 2008, at the same time policy of Chinese macroscopical adjusting control is tightened up ceaselessly, this two big factors may increase Chinese economy followed 2008 the whole world turns weak possibility. Gao Cheng thinks, 3 old economy system of the United States, Europe and Japan will suffer second by problem be a burden on, external demand of China will drop significantly. Meanwhile, as a result of RMB appraise the value lasts on the low side, restrain inside need, protect exit, the ” of link up with of the “ that put delay of Chinese economy and global economy is gotten more close together. But look from metaphase, the main area of Chinese economy will still keep driving, anticipate late exchange rate is adjusted will undertake 2008. Beautiful Lin Ye points out, chinese economy won't put delay significantly. Although will decrease to beautiful exit, but meeting from companionate to other and essential commerce especially Europe gets redeeming. And the addition that reachs fortune as people income, need to also will increase quickly inside, investment also will grow continuously. Additional, magendatong is forecasted Chinese GDP was added 2008 fast for 10.5% , slightly under 11.4% 2007. And of CPI year rise criterion 4.3% from 2007, fall after a rise arrives 3.8% 2008, future will maintain in 4% the left and right sides. Monetary policy won't tighten up Gao Cheng to think considerably, strengthen credit control, restraining investment will be the near future the main measure of macroscopical adjusting control. Central Bank of Gao Cheng general added the frequency of breath to turn into 1 times from 2 again inside year a few days ago, extent is 27 base point, think China won't be added again 2008 breath. Liang Gong points out, if export growth to drop at high speed, the RMB is forced to appreciate considerably again, the fall of external demand may make China policy needs inside new self-criticism, especially the policy of in-house investment demand. Gao Cheng thinks all the time, chinese economy should restore a balance, basically should rely on pull move inside need, want much consumption not just, also need much investment. Gao Cheng anticipates, the RMB will appreciate 2008 10% . In monetary policy respect, magendatong thinks, the Central Bank is faced with very big increase interest pressure, want to control inflation to anticipate on one hand, reduce the risk of economic occurrence overheat, change real saving interest rate to be negative current situation even at the same time, in order to be on guard asset bubble risk. Magendatong thinks, the tool of monetary policy adjusting control that such commercializing will cooperate to use with other administration measure and trade policy. Meanwhile, the Central Bank will continue to strengthen the management of fluidity. Magendatong thinks, china will be added 2008 cease 3 times, saving interest rate go up every time move 27 base point, go up 3 times of loan interest rate amplitude modulation will be respectively 27, 18 with 27 base point. China still can relax further the limitation of capital outflow, main avenue will be to expand QDII and allow individual investor to invest overseas market. To before before long economic job conference puts forward from tight monetary policy, area of big China of heart volition bank is presiding economist horse fine horse thinks, this is not the next year monetary policy that a lot of media place unscramble will be tightened up considerably, be pair of policy that pursue all the time since this year May only instead reiterate, do not mean monetary policy footing to will appear to be changed greatly. Heart volition bank anticipates, next year can have 1 to add breath move to 2 only. The Olympic Games won't be the Olympic Games that a lot of investor pay close attention to economic inflection point to be held in Beijing next year very much, think grand occasion of Yo of this an organic whole rises exciting economy, but cross a country to cast appear all right not so think. Magendatong thinks, the Olympic Games won't make the inflection point of Chinese economy. Gong Fangxiong expresses, the Olympic Games is the mainest sports great event not just, still will be one of the mainest economy event. Construction investment and retail sale will be benefited directly, but be benefited period will stop to end at the Olympic Games when. And the excessive investment before the Olympic Games can cause what invest after the Olympic Games and grow to glide, ebb even. Magendatong expresses, olympic Games to China the old economy system of such fast growth, it is a minor incident only actually. Altogether, magendatong thinks, 2008 after the Olympic Games, chinese economy will still maintain faster growth pace, the Olympic Games is met only certain to sponsorring the economy of urban Beijing to bring influence, finite to the influence of Chinese macroeconomic. United States forest thinks however, the Olympic Games influence to economy half of stand or fall. Although because the addition of travel and consumption gets pulling moving,demand is met really, but because busy move is in people,the game watchs on TV meanwhile, production may decrease. And partial city, especially Beijing, to reduce pollution, production drops significantly likely.
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